Tuesday, September 19, 2006

October Surprise?

It is possible it is just the rumor mill brewing: there is a lot of talk on the leftist blogs/websites that the Administration is planning an "October Surprise." The rumor has it that it either a) involves invading Iran, or b) it involves blockading the Straight of Hormuz.

Something smells fishy about this report (read: leak). Fuel prices are coming down. On the other hand, as I have previously posted, there is a significant factor in the price of oil in fear and market uncertainty. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if someone who has something to gain from the belief that oil supplies will be disrupted wouldn't try to keep prices up by spreading such a rumor on leftist websites. Whatever it is, the markets don't seem to be acting like there is any risk of it. Not that markets act rationally.

Poster JPF311 at TalkingPointsMemo.com left a comment (you can see the discussion
here) that postulates two possible reasons for such a leak (I have edited his comment for clarification):

"1) Reassure the increasingly angry War on Terror hawks that the Bush Bunch hasn't gone squishy soft with all that fancy- shmancy Euro-diplomacy stuff and we are taking some sort of military action too; and

2) Bluff the Iranians into thinking that we are [prepared] to strike if they don't negotiate meaningfully."

I think there is another possible reason for the rumor: to make Liberal bloggers and opinion makers look "goofy" "conspiratorial" and "out of the mainstream."

I have no idea if there is anything to this rumor. I guess we will just have to wait and see.


karl said...

All the sabre rattling towards Iran does seem politically savvy. At the very least repeating over and over again that a mad man is about to get nukes increaes the fear factor, which seems to lead to high Republican turn-out. Plus, war talk always cheers up the Neo-cons.

Air strikes may be a genuine possibility and with Rove in charge they may think it will help their chances in November.

Anonymous said...

Well, here we are at the end of October. Nothing has happened. hmmm...

OkieLawyer said...

As I said in the post, I also thought that is was an attempt to make the liberal bloggers look kooky.